Texas Governor
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Jenn Mack Raphoon (I) and Pat Dixon (L).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market has run well past this seat's history — a 11-point Republican hold in 2022, priced at 87¢ today.
Likely R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Polling · Lean RR+7 — Slingshot Strategies, Aug 27.Prior result · Lean RR+10.9 in 2022.Market · Likely RR 87¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
The market moved 2¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days · polling moved 4 points toward the Republican over 30 days.
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 87¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
R+7
YouGov ↗ B+
Aug 5 - 13, 26 · n=1,200 RV
R+5
PARTISAN
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+10.9
Greg Abbott (R)
54.76 — 43.86 · 2022 general election
def. Beto O’Rourke (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
4.1 to 1
Gina Hinojosa$6.17M
Greg Abbott$25.51M
PULLED 08-19 · PERIOD 06-30 · STATE FILING
Total receipts this cycle.