Arizona 1st District
OPEN SEAT
Also on the ballot: David Redkey (G), Monica Alponte (L) and Christopher Ajluni (other).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
A seat that went Republican by 4 points in 2024 is now priced for the Democrat.
Lean D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Lean DD 77¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Toss-upR+3.8 in 2024.
Signal clarityLow — no pollingas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 77¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
—
No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+3.8
David Schweikert (R)
51.9 — 48.1 · 2024 general election
def. Amish Shah (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
1.4 to 1
Amish Shah$1.83M
Jay Feely$2.53M
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 03-31 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.