Nicole Locklin · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Likely R

Locklin is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Likely R. The market has Locklin at 12¢ against Diaz-Balart's 90¢, up 1¢ since August 3. Diaz-Balart leads 5.9 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Locklin · Democratic contract

12.0¢

▲ 1.0¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Nicole Locklin by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 15¢ · low 8.1¢Oct 12

Nicole LocklinDemocratic

12.0¢

Mario Diaz-BalartRepublican · incumbent

90.0¢

13,524 traded · 5,784 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Locklin v Diaz-Balart

Metric by metric

Locklin

Diaz-Balart

12.0¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

90.0¢

$347.7K

RaisedFEC, through July 29

$2.06M

$198.6K

Cash on handFEC, through July 29

$2.54M

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2003

The 2026 race

Florida 26th District

Prior result

R+41.8

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Mario Diaz-Balart.

Fundraising

5.9 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 29.