Elections Intelligence

Brian Bengs

SDU.S. Senate S architectural icon I
CHALLENGER Safe R to Likely RThe seat No consensus
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Likely R

Bengs is the independent challenger for a seat the Signal rates Likely R. The market has Bengs at 7¢ against Rounds's 94¢, up 1¢ since August 15. The polling average has Rounds ahead by 5 points, and Rounds leads 4 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Bengs · independent contract
7.0¢
▲ 1.0¢since August 15
Aug 1545 daily readings · high 10¢ · low 5¢Oct 12
Brian Bengsindependent
7.0¢
Mike RoundsRepublican · incumbent
94.0¢

248,270 traded · 180,266 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Bengs v Rounds

Metric by metric
Bengs
Rounds
7.0¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
94.0¢
$782.0K
RaisedFEC, through June 30
$3.18M
$51.4K
Cash on handFEC, through June 30
$2.74M
38%
Latest pollZenith Polls, Bengs sponsor · Sep 27
44%
No office on file
Holds now
U.S. Senatorsince 2015

The 2026 race

South Dakota U.S. Senate
Polling average
Rounds +5

Average of 3 pollsters, August 17 to September 27.

Prior result
R+31.5

2020 general election, won by Mike Rounds.

Fundraising
4 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.