Texas 28th District

DEFENDED SEATLean D to Likely DREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedTexas redrew its congressional map in the middle of the decade through HB 4, which Gov. Greg Abbott signed on Aug. 29, 2025. A federal court blocked the map, but the U.S. Supreme Court put that ruling on hold in December 2025 and reversed it in April 2026, so the new lines are in place for 2026. The Laredo and Rio Grande Valley district takes in territory from neighboring districts. It becomes somewhat more Republican, going from Trump +7.3 to Trump +10.4 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗

Henry Cuellar (D) has held this seat since 2005 and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in September 2025.

PresidentialR+7.3→R+10.4Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+7.3) and the new (R+10.4). Same ballots, new map.

FTP Race Signal

FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.

This district was redrawn in September 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 89¢ Democratic.

Likely D

Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R

Market · Likely DD 89¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Lean DD+5.59 in 2024.Polling · Lean DD+5.3 (average of 2 pollsters, Jul 30).

Market and polls both favor Cuellar.

Polling moved 19 points toward the Democrat over 37 days. As of October 12.

Market

BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 89¢

Kalshi party market · checked 2:09 PM ET

View market on Kalshi ↗

Polling

BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above

D+5.3

TSU - B. Jordan ↗ B- Jul 27 to 30 · n=600 LV D+11 Independent

Pulse ↗ Jun 21 to 23 · n=400 LV R+8 Tijerina sponsor R+8 · Tijerina sponsor · counts as R+6 at half weight

Average of the latest poll from each of the 2 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.

Prior result

BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above

D+5.6

Henry Cuellar (D)

52.8% to 47.2% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesTexas redrew its congressional map in the middle of the decade through HB 4, which Gov. Greg Abbott signed on Aug. 29, 2025. A federal court blocked the map, but the U.S. Supreme Court put that ruling on hold in December 2025 and reversed it in April 2026, so the new lines are in place for 2026. The Laredo and Rio Grande Valley district takes in territory from neighboring districts. It becomes somewhat more Republican, going from Trump +7.3 to Trump +10.4 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗

def. Jay Furman (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

Fundraising

BandRATIO TO 1Parity1 to 5Lean5 and above

1.6 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026 · thru Jun 30

Henry Cuellar$2.23M ↗$1.13M cash

Tano Tijerina$1.38M ↗$768.2K cash

Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; Cuellar leads 1.6 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.