Texas 28th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 6-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 84¢ today.

Likely D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Likely DD 84¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Likely DD+11 — TSU - B. Jordan, Aug 26.Prior result · Lean DD+5.59 in 2024.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 84¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+11

TSU - B. Jordan ↗ B- Jul 27 - 30 · n=600 LV D+11 INDEPENDENT

Pulse ↗ Jun 21 - 23 · n=400 LV R+8 R SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+5.59

Henry Cuellar (D)

52.79 — 47.21 · 2024 general election

def. Jay Furman (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

1.6 to 1

Henry Cuellar$2.23M

Tano Tijerina$1.40M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.