FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market has run well past this seat's history: a 9-point Democratic hold in 2022, priced at 92.7¢ today.
Likely D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Likely DD 92.7¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Likely DD+13 (Siena, Sep 17).Prior result · Lean DD+9.25 in 2022.MarketD 92.7¢PollsD+132022 resultD+9.3
MarketD 92.7¢PollsD+132022D+9.3
Market and polls both favor James.
The market moved 3¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days · polling moved 5 points toward the Republican over 42 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Closing balance at July 11, 2026, not money raised; James leads 9.8 to 1 on cash, which takes no place on the spectrum.What these filings sayThis filing reports closing cash on hand; receipts and expenditures are not on file for this period.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.