Wisconsin Governor — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market and the latest general-election poll carry this seat — Wisconsin has no verified prior result on file.

Lean D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Lean DD 79¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Toss-upD+3.3 — Marquette, Aug 26.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 4¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 79¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+3.3

Marquette ↗ A+ Aug 12 - 20, 26 · n=738 LV D+3.3 INDEPENDENT

TIPP ↗ A+ Aug 14 - 18, 26 · n=1,119 LV D+3.3 INDEPENDENT

Platform Comms. ↗ Aug 12 - 13, 26 · n=500 LV D+4 INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

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No verified prior result

The last general election in this seat has not been imported from an official state canvass, so the signal has no baseline.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

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David Crowley$463.1K

Tom Tiffany$4.97M

PULLED 08-19 · PERIOD 07-27 · STATE FILING

Cash on hand at the period end, not money raised.