California 11th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

No market prices this seat. The most recent general-election poll puts the Democrat ahead by 5 points — a 62-point Democratic hold in 2024.

Safe D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Prior result · Safe DD+62 in 2024.Polling · Lean DD+5 — Lake Research, Jul 31.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-07-31

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

—

No settling contract prices this race, so there is no market reading.

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+5

Lake Research ↗ B+ Jul 14 - 19 · n=500 LV D+5 D SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+62

Nancy Pelosi (D)

81 — 19 · 2024 general election

def. Bruce Lou (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

4.2 to 1

Connie Chan$1.09M

Scott Wiener$4.56M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.