Every candidate on the November ballot is a Democrat, so the seat cannot change party. The seat verdict says nothing about which candidate wins; the number beside a candidate is that candidate's own contract.
FTP Race Signal
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
Both finalists are Democrats, so the seat stays Democratic; the market favors Wiener.
Safe D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Prior result · Safe DD+62 in 2024.2024 resultD+62.0
2024D+62.0
Polls of two Democrats are not averaged. The latest, Tavern Res. for Scott Wiener, September 15 to 17, had Wiener ahead by 6. The market favors Wiener.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
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The Kalshi event on this seat prices named candidates rather than party control, so it answers who wins and not whether the seat changes hands. It gives the signal no reading; each candidate's own price is shown in the prediction market module.
Polling
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above