Michigan 7th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

A seat that went Republican by 4 points in 2024 is now priced for the Democrat.

Lean D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Lean DD 65¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Toss-upD+2 — GSG, Aug 20.Prior result · Toss-upR+3.8 in 2024.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 2¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days · polling moved 3 points toward the Democrat over 45 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 65¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+2

GSG ↗ B- Aug 11 - 13 · n=500 LV D+2 D SPONSOR

Data for Progress ↗ B- Jun 24 - 30 · n=772 LV D+2 D SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+3.8

Tom Barrett (R)

50.3 — 46.5 · 2024 general election

def. Curtis Hertel (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

—

Tom Barrett$6.31M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-15 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.