FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
A seat that went Republican by 4 points in 2024 is now a coin flip, the Democrat narrowly ahead at 61¢.
Toss-up
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Toss-upD 61¢: traders' price for a Democratic win, a flip from Republican.Polling · Toss-upEVEN (average of 2 pollsters, Aug 13).Prior result · Toss-upR+3.8 in 2024.Fundraising · Lean RR 5.64-to-1 in receipts.MarketD 61¢PollsEVEN2024 resultR+3.8FundraisingR 5.64 to 1
MarketD 61¢PollsEVEN2024R+3.8FundraisingR 5.64 to 1
Market favors Lawrence, but polls are even.
Polling moved 3 points toward the Democrat over 44 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
EVEN
GSG ↗B-Aug 11 to 13 · n=500 LVD+2House Majority PAC sponsorD+2 · House Majority PAC sponsor · counts as EVEN at half weight
Data for Progress ↗B-Jun 24 to 30 · n=772 LVD+2D sponsorD+2 · D sponsor · counts as EVEN at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of the 2 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+3.8
Tom Barrett (R)
50.3% to 46.5% · 2024 general election
def. Curtis Hertel (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.