Minnesota 1st District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market is less sure of this seat than its history is — a 17-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 73¢ today.

Lean R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Lean RR 73¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Polling · Likely RR+10 — Ragnar, Apr 29.Prior result · Likely RR+17.1 in 2024.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 2¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 73¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

R+10

Ragnar ↗ B Mar 12 - 14 · n=400 LV R+10 R SPONSOR

PPP ↗ B Feb 2 - 3 · n=708 RV R+3 D SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+17.1

Brad Finstad (R)

58.51 — 41.41 · 2024 general election

def. Rachel Bohman (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

—

Brad Finstad$2.03M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-22 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.