FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market is less sure of this seat than its history is: a 17-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 77¢ today.
Lean R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Toss-upR+4.7 (average of 3 pollsters, Sep 21).Market · Lean RR 77¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Likely RR+17.1 in 2024.PollsR+4.7MarketR 77¢2024 resultR+17.1
MarketR 77¢PollsR+4.72024R+17.1
Market and polls both favor Finstad.
The market moved 2¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
R+4.7
GBAO ↗BSep 18 to 21 · n=500 LVD+1House Majority PAC sponsorD+1 · House Majority PAC sponsor · counts as R+1 at half weight
Ragnar ↗BMar 12 to 14 · n=400 LVR+10R sponsorR+10 · R sponsor · counts as R+8 at half weight
PPP ↗BFeb 2 to 3 · n=708 RVR+3Johnson sponsorR+3 · Johnson sponsor · counts as R+5 at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of the 3 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+17.1
Brad Finstad (R)
58.5% to 41.4% · 2024 general election
def. Rachel Bohman (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through July 22, 2026; the two campaigns have raised about the same, so fundraising takes no place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.