Texas 15th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

A seat that went Republican by 14 points in 2024 is now a coin flip, the Democrat narrowly ahead at 53¢.

Toss-up

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Polling · Lean DD+5 — TSU - B. Jordan, Aug 26.Market · Toss-upD 53¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Likely RR+14.23 in 2024.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 53¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+5

TSU - B. Jordan ↗ B- Jul 27 - 30 · n=700 LV D+5 INDEPENDENT

Normington Petts ↗ C- Jul 23 - 27 · n=553 LV D+6 D SPONSOR

Applecart ↗ May 18 - 25 · n=802 LV D+2 D SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+14.23

Monica De La Cruz (R)

57.11 — 42.89 · 2024 general election

def. Michelle Vallejo (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

1.8 to 1

Bobby Pulido$2.96M

Monica De La Cruz$5.27M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.