DEFENDED SEATToss-up to Lean DREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedTexas redrew its congressional map in the middle of the decade through HB 4, which Gov. Greg Abbott signed on Aug. 29, 2025. A federal court blocked the map, but the U.S. Supreme Court put that ruling on hold in December 2025 and reversed it in April 2026, so the new lines are in place for 2026. It's rebuilt from three districts. About two-fifths is the old 15th, and the rest comes from the old 27th and 34th. Its 2024 presidential margin stays the same (Trump +17.9).Source ↗
Monica De La Cruz (R) has held this seat since 2023 and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in September 2025.
PresidentialR+17.9→R+17.9Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+17.9) and the new (R+17.9). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in September 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 84¢ Democratic.
Lean D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Likely DD 84¢: traders' price for a Democratic win, a flip from Republican.Polling · Lean DD+5.3 (average of 3 pollsters, Sep 28).Prior result · Likely RR+14.23 in 2024.MarketD 84¢PollsD+5.32024 resultR+14.2
MarketD 84¢PollsD+5.32024R+14.2
Market and polls both favor Pulido.
The market moved 2¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days · polling moved 8 points toward the Democrat over 37 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Applecart ↗May 18 to 25 · n=802 LVD+2D sponsorD+2 · D sponsor · counts as EVEN at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of the 3 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Earlier polls · 1
Normington Petts ↗C-Jul 23 to 27 · n=553 LVD+6D sponsorD+6 · D sponsor · counts as D+4 at half weight
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+14.2
Monica De La Cruz (R)
57.1% to 42.9% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesTexas redrew its congressional map in the middle of the decade through HB 4, which Gov. Greg Abbott signed on Aug. 29, 2025. A federal court blocked the map, but the U.S. Supreme Court put that ruling on hold in December 2025 and reversed it in April 2026, so the new lines are in place for 2026. It's rebuilt from three districts. About two-fifths is the old 15th, and the rest comes from the old 27th and 34th. Its 2024 presidential margin stays the same (Trump +17.9).Source ↗
def. Michelle Vallejo (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; Cruz leads 1.7 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.