California 51st District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 21-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 99.8¢ today.

Safe D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Safe DD 99.8¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Likely DD+21.39 in 2024.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 99.8¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

—

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+21.39

Sara Jacobs (D)

60.7 — 39.3 · 2024 general election

def. Bill Wells (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

—

Sara Jacobs$1.64M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.