DEFENDED SEATSafe DREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedCalifornia voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. It becomes somewhat less Democratic, going from Harris +23.5 to Harris +18.3 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
Sara Jacobs (D) has held this seat since 2023 and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in August 2025.
PresidentialD+23.5→D+18.3Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (D+23.5) and the new (D+18.3). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in August 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 99.3¢ Democratic.
Safe D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Safe DD 99.3¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Likely DD+21.39 in 2024.MarketD 99.3¢2024 resultD+21.4
MarketD 99.3¢2024D+21.4
No public polls. The market favors Jacobs.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
—
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
D+21.4
Sara Jacobs (D)
60.7% to 39.3% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesCalifornia voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. It becomes somewhat less Democratic, going from Harris +23.5 to Harris +18.3 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
def. Bill Wells (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.