Elections Intelligence

Zach Dembo

KY-6U.S. House H architectural icon
CHALLENGER Lean R Competitive underdog
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Lean R

Dembo is the Democratic nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Lean R. The market has Dembo at 32¢ against Alvarado's 70¢, up 5¢ since August 3. The polling average has Dembo ahead by 4 points, and the two campaigns have raised about the same.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Dembo · Democratic contract
32.0¢
▲ 5.0¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Zach Dembo by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 33¢ · low 21¢Oct 12
Zach DemboDemocratic
32.0¢
Ralph AlvaradoRepublican
70.0¢

76,904 traded · 58,281 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Dembo v Alvarado

Metric by metric
Dembo
Alvarado
32.0¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
70.0¢
$1.46M
RaisedFEC, through June 30
$1.52M
$491.3K
Cash on handFEC, through June 30
$398.0K
47%
Latest pollChange Research, D sponsor · Oct 5
38%
No office on file
Holds now
No office on file

The 2026 race

Kentucky 6th District
Polling average
D+4

Average of 3 pollsters, September 30 to October 5.

Prior result
R+26.0

2024 general election, won by Andy Barr.

Fundraising
1 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.