OPEN SEATSafe DREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedFlorida redrew its congressional map in a 2026 special session. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the new plan (HB 1-D) on May 4, 2026; it changed 21 of the state's 28 districts. It becomes somewhat more Democratic, going from Harris +30.1 to Harris +38.7 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
Frederica S. Wilson (D) has held this seat since 2013 and is not running; the district was redrawn in May 2026.
PresidentialD+30.1→D+38.7Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (D+30.1) and the new (D+38.7). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in May 2026; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 98.8¢ Democratic.
Safe D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Safe DD 98.8¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Safe DD+36.4 in 2024.MarketD 98.8¢2024 resultD+36.4
MarketD 98.8¢2024D+36.4
No public polls. The market favors Gilbert.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
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Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
D+36.4
Frederica S. Wilson (D)
68.2% to 31.8% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesFlorida redrew its congressional map in a 2026 special session. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the new plan (HB 1-D) on May 4, 2026; it changed 21 of the state's 28 districts. It becomes somewhat more Democratic, going from Harris +30.1 to Harris +38.7 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
def. Jesus Navarro (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through July 29, 2026; Gilbert leads 2.5 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.