Ohio 7th District

DEFENDED SEATLean DREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedOhio had to redraw its map before 2026. The bipartisan Ohio Redistricting Commission voted unanimously for a new plan on Oct. 31, 2025, and it stays in place until the next census. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +10.6 to Trump +11.1 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗

Max L. Miller (R) has held this seat since 2023 and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in October 2025.

PresidentialR+10.6→R+11.1Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+10.6) and the new (R+11.1). Same ballots, new map.

FTP Race Signal

FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.

This district was redrawn in October 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 81¢ Democratic.

Lean D

Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R

Polling · Likely DD+10 (average of 3 pollsters, Aug 10).Market · Lean DD 81¢: traders' price for a Democratic win, a flip from Republican.Prior result · Likely RR+14.96 in 2024.

Market and polls both favor Poindexter.

Polling moved 3 points toward the Democrat over 11 days. As of October 12.

Market

BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 81¢

Kalshi party market · checked 2:09 PM ET

View market on Kalshi ↗

Polling

BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above

D+10

Bedrock Polling ↗ Aug 7 to 10 · n=866 LV D+8 D sponsor D+8 · D sponsor · counts as D+6 at half weight

co/efficient ↗ Aug 5 to 6 · n=615 LV D+14 R-leaning firm

Tavern Research ↗ Aug 4 to 6 · n=635 LV D+8 Independent

Average of the latest poll from each of the 3 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.

Earlier polls · 2

co/efficient ↗ Jul 30 D+5 R-leaning firm

GBAO ↗ B Jun 16 to 20 · n=500 LV R+1 Sponsor unconfirmed (released by the Ohio Democratic Party) R+1 · Sponsor unconfirmed (released by the Ohio Democratic Party) · counts as R+3 at half weight

Prior result

BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above

R+15.0

Max L. Miller (R)

51.1% to 36.1% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesOhio had to redraw its map before 2026. The bipartisan Ohio Redistricting Commission voted unanimously for a new plan on Oct. 31, 2025, and it stays in place until the next census. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +10.6 to Trump +11.1 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗

def. Matt Diemer (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

Fundraising

BandRATIO TO 1Parity1 to 5Lean5 and above

3.5 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026 · thru Jun 30

Brian Poindexter$603.2K ↗$312.3K cash

Max L. Miller$2.14M ↗$1.38M cash

Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; Miller leads 3.5 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.