Ohio 7th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

A seat that went Republican by 15 points in 2024 is now priced for the Democrat.

Likely D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Likely DD 84¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Lean DD+8 — Bedrock Polling, Aug 12.Prior result · Likely RR+14.96 in 2024.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 3¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days · polling moved 9 points toward the Democrat over 50 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 84¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+8

Bedrock Polling ↗ Aug 7 - 10 · n=866 LV D+8 D SPONSOR

Tavern Research ↗ Aug 4 - 6 · n=635 LV D+8 INDEPENDENT

co/efficient ↗ Aug 5 - 6 · n=615 LV D+14 R SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+14.96

Max L. Miller (R)

51.08 — 36.12 · 2024 general election

def. Matt Diemer (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

3.6 to 1

Brian Poindexter$603.2K

Max L. Miller$2.14M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.