DEFENDED SEATSafe RREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedCalifornia voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +30.3 to Trump +32.2 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗
Vince Fong (R) has held this seat since June 2024, after a special election, and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in August 2025.
PresidentialR+30.3→R+32.2Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+30.3) and the new (R+32.2). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in August 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 97.6¢ Republican.
Safe R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Fundraising · Lean RR 108.24-to-1 in receipts.Market · Safe RR 97.6¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.FundraisingR 108.24 to 1MarketR 97.6¢
MarketR 97.6¢FundraisingR 108.24 to 1
No public polls. The market favors Fong.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
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Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
65.1 to 34.9
Fong won 65.1% to 34.9% over another Republican (2024)
2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesCalifornia voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +30.3 to Trump +32.2 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗
Result verified against retrieved official results.