John H. Rutherford · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Likely R

Rutherford is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Likely R. The market has Rutherford at 93.9¢ against Grage's 8.9¢, up 1.3¢ since August 3. Rutherford leads 2.6 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Rutherford · Republican contract

93.9¢

▲ 1.3¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on John H. Rutherford by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 94¢ · low 91.9¢Oct 12

John H. RutherfordRepublican · incumbent

93.9¢

Rachel GrageDemocratic

8.9¢

12,112 traded · 4,393 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Rutherford v Grage

Metric by metric

Rutherford

Grage

93.9¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

8.9¢

$726.7K

RaisedFEC, through July 29

$272.4K

$268.7K

Cash on handFEC, through July 29

$90.5K

U.S. Representativesince 2017

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Florida 5th District

Prior result

R+26.1

2024 general election, won by John H. Rutherford.

Fundraising

2.6 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 29.