Elections Intelligence

Michael Whatley

NCU.S. Senate S architectural icon
CHALLENGER Likely D Underdog
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Likely D

Whatley is the Republican nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Likely D. The market has Whatley at 5.2¢ against Cooper's 95.8¢, down 3.2¢ since July 31. The polling average has Cooper ahead by 8.7 points, and Cooper leads 3.1 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Whatley · Republican contract
5.2¢
▼ 3.2¢since July 31

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Michael Whatley by name.

Jul 3148 daily readings · high 9.9¢ · low 3.4¢Oct 12
Michael WhatleyRepublican
5.2¢
Roy CooperDemocratic
95.8¢
Michael DublinGreen
no contract on this candidate in the market
Shannon W. BrayLibertarian
no contract on this candidate in the market

3,207,296 traded · 2,754,137 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Whatley v Cooper

Metric by metric
Whatley
Cooper
5.2¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
95.8¢
$11.27M
RaisedFEC, through June 30
$34.98M
$3.46M
Cash on handFEC, through June 30
$20.72M
40.9%
Latest pollTrafalgar Group · Oct 8
48.8%
No office on file
Holds now
No office on file

The 2026 race

North Carolina U.S. Senate
Polling average
D+8.7

Average of 11 pollsters, September 15 to October 8.

Prior result
R+1.8

2020 general election, won by Thom Tillis.

Fundraising
3.1 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.