Arizona 4th District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: John Fillmore (other).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market has run well past this seat's history — a 5-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 95.4¢ today.
Safe D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Safe DD 95.4¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Lean DD+5.4 in 2024.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 95.4¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
—
No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+5.4
Greg Stanton (D)
52.7 — 47.3 · 2024 general election
def. Kelly Cooper (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
3.7 to 1
Greg Stanton$2.12M
Zuhdi Jasser$564.6K
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-01 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.