FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market has run well past this seat's history: a 10-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 87¢ today.
Likely R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Lean RR+5 (Public Policy Polling (D) (adjusted), Dec 11).Fundraising · Lean RR 5.86-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Lean RR+10.42 in 2024.Market · Likely RR 87¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.PollsR+5FundraisingR 5.86 to 12024 resultR+10.4MarketR 87¢
MarketR 87¢PollsR+52024R+10.4FundraisingR 5.86 to 1
Market and polls both favor LaLota.
The market moved 5¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above