OPEN SEATSafe R to Likely RREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedA Utah judge struck down the Legislature's map for violating Proposition 4, the anti-gerrymandering measure voters passed, and on Nov. 10, 2025, picked a map submitted by the plaintiffs for 2026. It becomes somewhat more Republican, going from Trump +26.7 to Trump +32.5 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
Burgess Owens (R) has held this seat since 2021 and is not on the November ballot; the district was redrawn in November 2025.
PresidentialR+26.7→R+32.5Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+26.7) and the new (R+32.5). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in November 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 97.3¢ Republican.
Likely R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Fundraising · Lean RR 18.13-to-1 in receipts.Polling · Lean RR+8.8 (Lighthoust Research, Sep 17).Prior result · Safe RR+33.21 in 2024.Market · Safe RR 97.3¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.FundraisingR 18.13 to 1PollsR+8.82024 resultR+33.2MarketR 97.3¢
MarketR 97.3¢PollsR+8.82024R+33.2FundraisingR 18.13 to 1
Market and polls both favor Kennedy.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+33.2
Burgess Owens (R)
63.4% to 30.2% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesA Utah judge struck down the Legislature's map for violating Proposition 4, the anti-gerrymandering measure voters passed, and on Nov. 10, 2025, picked a map submitted by the plaintiffs for 2026. It becomes somewhat more Republican, going from Trump +26.7 to Trump +32.5 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
def. Katrina Fallick-Wang (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.