Carmela Conroy
WA-5What the Signal reads
Likely R
Conroy is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Likely R. The market has Conroy at 16¢ against Baumgartner's 85¢, up 2¢ since August 3. The polling average has Baumgartner ahead by 6 points, and Baumgartner leads 4.3 to 1 in money raised.
The market
Conroy · Democratic contract
16.0¢
▲ 2.0¢since August 3
This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Carmela Conroy by name.
84,055 traded · 70,665 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Conroy v Baumgartner
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Washington 5th DistrictLatest poll
R+6
Tavern Research, May 25.
Prior result
R+21.3
2024 general election, won by Michael Baumgartner.
Fundraising
4.3 to 1
Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 15.