PROFILES / U.S. HOUSE / WASHINGTON

Carmela Conroy

Democratic · House challenger

CHALLENGER ON THE 2026 BALLOT LIKELY R — AGAINST THE CANDIDATE KALSHI · 21¢ · CHECKED Aug 27

THE 2026 RACE · WASHINGTON 5TH DISTRICTFull race page →

OPPONENTMichael Baumgartner (R)Incumbent

FTP RACE SIGNALLikely RAI-enabled synthesis of attributed evidence · not a publisher rating

KALSHI · Aug 27R 82¢ · D 21¢

LATEST POLL · STALER+6<a class="e-poll-source" href="https://www.tavernresearch.com/research-and-writings//wa-05-baumgartner-leads-democrats-trails-independent" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Tavern Research ↗</a> 06-01 · n=578 · 87 days old

STANDING · THIS SEAT

1:4fundraising ratio v Baumgartner · FEC period 07-15

CAMPAIGN FINANCE · FECPULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-15

$396.2Kraised

$74.5Kcash on hand

CONROY FOR CONGRESS ↗

· Baumgartner: $1.74M / $953.8K CoH

BALLOT & DATES

Top-two primary08-04 · HELD

GeneralNov 3, 2026

Top-two field settled · both advancers on the November ballot

COMPARE V BAUMGARTNER ⇄