Blake Gendebien
NY-21What the Signal reads
Lean R
Gendebien is the Democratic nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Lean R. The market has Gendebien at 28¢ against Constantino's 74¢, up 11¢ since August 3. The polling average has Constantino ahead by 1 point, and Constantino leads 1.7 to 1 in money raised.
The market
Gendebien · Democratic contract
28.0¢
▲ 11.0¢since August 3
This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Blake Gendebien by name.
141,790 traded · 101,443 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Gendebien v Constantino
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
New York 21st DistrictPolling average
R+1
Average of 3 pollsters, September 10 to October 6.
Prior result
R+24.0
2024 general election, won by Elise M. Stefanik.
Fundraising
1.7 to 1
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.