Texas 20th District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Anthony Tristan (I).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — Democratic and unopposed in 2024, priced at 98¢ today.
Safe D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Prior result · Safe DUnopposed in 2024.Market · Safe DD 98¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Fundraising · Lean DD 10.61-to-1 in receipts.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 98¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
—
No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D unopposed
Joaquin Castro (D)
2024 general election
def. (). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
D 10.61 to 1
Joaquin Castro$514.8K
Edgardo Baez$48.5K
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.