Elections Intelligence

Blake D. Moore

UT-2U.S. House H architectural icon
CHALLENGER Safe R to Likely R Likely to win
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Likely R

Moore is the Republican nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Likely R. The market has Moore at 96.8¢ against Crosby's 5.6¢, up 1.8¢ since August 3. The polling average has Moore ahead by 2.5 points, and Moore leads 42.1 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Moore · Republican contract
96.8¢
▲ 1.8¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Blake D. Moore by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 98¢ · low 95¢Oct 12
Blake D. MooreRepublican
96.8¢
Peter CrosbyDemocratic
5.6¢

11,907 traded · 5,647 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Moore v Crosby

Metric by metric
Moore
Crosby
96.8¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
5.6¢
$2.54M
RaisedFEC, through June 30
$60.2K
$1.89M
Cash on handFEC, through June 30
$23.3K
39%
Latest pollLighthoust Research · Sep 24
34%
U.S. Representativesince 2021
Holds now
No office on file

The 2026 race

Utah 2nd District
Polling average
R+2.5

Average of 3 pollsters, September 10 to September 24.

Prior result
R+23.8

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Celeste Maloy.

Fundraising
42.1 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.

THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWNR+20.0 → D+23.6

A Utah judge struck down the Legislature's map for violating Proposition 4, the anti-gerrymandering measure voters passed, and on Nov. 10, 2025, picked a map submitted by the plaintiffs for 2026. It unites Salt Lake County communities that had been split among four districts. The new lines flip the district, going from Trump +20 to Harris +23.6 in the 2024 presidential vote.

The record this is read from ↗

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.