New Hampshire Governor — Elections Intelligence

THE MATCHUP PRIMARY SEP 08 DECIDES THE REPUBLICAN SIDE

PRIMARY · SEP 08 · REPUBLICAN NO MARKET

Decides which Republican appears on the November ballot.

No market prices this primary · 3 Republicans have filed

NOV 3 · THE GENERAL ELECTION GOVPARTYNH-28 ↗

Cinde Warmington holds the Democratic nomination. The party market prices the seat, not the people — it carries whichever Republican wins on September 8, 2026.

18¢REPUBLICAN 88¢

KALSHI PARTY MARKET · CHECKED 08/27Cinde WarmingtonDemocratic · NomineeRepublican nomineeDetermined by the primary on September 8, 2026

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market and the latest general-election poll carry this seat — New Hampshire has no verified prior result on file.

Likely R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Polling · Likely RR+11 — St. Anselm, Aug 20.Market · Likely RR 88¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 2¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days · polling moved 3 points toward the Republican over 50 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 88¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

R+11

St. Anselm ↗ Aug 17 - 18 · n=1,411 LV · HYPOTHETICAL MATCHUP R+11 INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

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No verified prior result

The last general election in this seat has not been imported from an official state canvass, so the signal has no baseline.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

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Cinde Warmington$888.3K

Republican nominee determined Sep 8, 2026.

PULLED 08-19 · PERIOD 08-16 · STATE FILING

Total receipts this cycle.