FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market has run well past this seat's history: a 9-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 94.7¢ today.
Likely R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Lean RR+7.7 (average of 4 pollsters, Oct 5).Prior result · Lean RR+9.34 in 2024.Market · Likely RR 94.7¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.PollsR+7.72024 resultR+9.3MarketR 94.7¢
MarketR 94.7¢PollsR+7.72024R+9.3
Market and polls both favor Ayotte.
Polling moved 12 points toward the Democrat over 24 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above