California 27th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 3-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 95.6¢ today.

Safe D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Safe DD 95.6¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Fundraising · Lean DD 10.45-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Toss-upD+2.6 in 2024.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 3¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 95.6¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+2.6

George Whitesides (D)

51.3 — 48.7 · 2024 general election

def. Mike Garcia (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

D 10.45 to 1

George Whitesides$3.96M

Jason Gibbs$379.4K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.