California 3rd District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

A seat that went Republican by 11 points in 2024 is now priced for the Democrat.

Safe D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Safe DD 95.5¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Lean RR+11 in 2024.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 95.5¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

—

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+11

Kevin Kiley (R)

55.5 — 44.5 · 2024 general election

def. Jessica Morse (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

4.8 to 1

Ami Bera$1.25M

Robb Tucker$258.1K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.