OPEN SEATSafe DREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedCalifornia voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. Some of its Sierra base is traded for Sacramento-area voters. The new lines flip the district, going from Trump +3.8 to Harris +10.2 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
Kevin Kiley (I) has held this seat since 2023 and is not running; the district was redrawn in August 2025.
PresidentialR+3.8→D+10.2Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+3.8) and the new (D+10.2). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in August 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 96.9¢ Democratic.
Safe D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Safe DD 96.9¢: traders' price for a Democratic win, a flip from Independent.Prior result · Lean RR+11 in 2024.MarketD 96.9¢2024 resultR+11.0
MarketD 96.9¢2024R+11.0
No public polls. The market favors Bera.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
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Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+11.0
Kevin Kiley (R)
55.5% to 44.5% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesCalifornia voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. Some of its Sierra base is traded for Sacramento-area voters. The new lines flip the district, going from Trump +3.8 to Harris +10.2 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
def. Jessica Morse (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; Bera leads 4.8 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.