Patrick Halpin · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Likely R

Halpin is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Likely R. The market has Halpin at 14¢ against Garbarino's 87¢, up 2¢ since August 3. Garbarino leads 7.6 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Halpin · Democratic contract

14.0¢

▲ 2.0¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Patrick Halpin by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 17¢ · low 11¢Oct 12

Patrick HalpinDemocratic

14.0¢

Andrew R. GarbarinoRepublican · incumbent

87.0¢

16,562 traded · 11,007 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Halpin v Garbarino

Metric by metric

Halpin

Garbarino

14.0¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

87.0¢

$461.8K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$3.51M

$89.4K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$3.46M

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2021

The 2026 race

New York 2nd District

Prior result

R+19.5

2024 general election, won by Andrew R. Garbarino.

Fundraising

7.6 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.