Texas 38th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market is less sure of this seat than its history is — a 26-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 93.9¢ today.

Likely R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Fundraising · Lean RR 24.57-to-1 in receipts.Market · Likely RR 93.9¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+25.5 in 2024.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 93.9¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+25.5

Wesley Hunt (R)

62.73 — 37.24 · 2024 general election

def. Melissa McDonough (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

R 24.57 to 1

Melissa McDonough$66.9K

Jon Bonck$1.64M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.