Mississippi 2nd District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Bennie Foster (I).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 24-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 93¢ today.
Likely D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Prior result · Likely DD+24.03 in 2024.Market · Likely DD 93¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Fundraising · Lean DD 16.99-to-1 in receipts.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
The market moved 3¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 93¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
—
No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+24.03
Bennie G. Thompson (D)
62.02 — 37.98 · 2024 general election
def. Ron Eller (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
D 16.99 to 1
Bennie G. Thompson$771.0K
Ron Eller$45.4K
PULLED 08-22 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.