FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market prices this seat about where its history left it: a 16-point Republican gain in 2024, priced at 90¢ today.
Likely R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Lean RR+8 (Ragnar Research Partners, Mar 12).Fundraising · Lean RR 61.83-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Likely RR+16.13 in 2024.Market · Likely RR 90¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.PollsR+8FundraisingR 61.83 to 12024 resultR+16.1MarketR 90¢
MarketR 90¢PollsR+82024R+16.1FundraisingR 61.83 to 1
Market and polls both favor Moore.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above