North Carolina 14th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 16-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 91.9¢ today.

Likely R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Polling · Lean RR+8 — Ragnar, Apr 29.Fundraising · Lean RR 61.83-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Likely RR+16.13 in 2024.Market · Likely RR 91.9¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 91.9¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

R+8

Ragnar ↗ B Mar 10 - 12 · n=400 LV R+8 R SPONSOR

Ragnar Research Partners ↗ 04-29 · n=400 LV R+8 PARTISAN

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+16.13

Tim Moore (R)

58.06 — 41.94 · 2024 general election

def. Pam Genant (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

R 61.83 to 1

Lakesha Womack$24.9K

Tim Moore$1.54M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.