Pennsylvania 7th District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Michael Granados (I).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
A seat that went Republican by 1 point in 2024 is now priced for the Democrat.
Lean D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Lean DD 75¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Toss-upD+4 — GBAO, Jul 9.Prior result · Toss-upR+1 in 2024.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
The market moved 9¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 75¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
D+4
GBAO ↗ B
Jun 29 - Jul 2 · n=550 LV
D+4
D SPONSOR
GBAO ↗
07-09 · n=400 LV
D+4
PARTISAN
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+1
Ryan Mackenzie (R)
50.5 — 49.5 · 2024 general election
def. Susan Wild (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
1.8 to 1
Bob Brooks$2.39M
Ryan Mackenzie$4.36M
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.