Elections Intelligence

Pennsylvania 7th District

DEFENDED SEAT
LEAN D
Bob Brooks Democratic · Challenger
KALSHI PARTY MARKETCHECKED Aug 27
DEMOCRAT 75¢REPUBLICAN 29¢
View market on Kalshi ↗
Ryan Mackenzie Republican · Incumbent
Also on the ballot: Michael Granados (I).
FTP RACE SIGNAL

A seat that went Republican by 1 point in 2024 is now priced for the Democrat.

Lean D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Lean DD 75¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold. Polling · Toss-upD+4 — GBAO, Jul 9. Prior result · Toss-upR+1 in 2024.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
The market moved 9¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.
MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 75¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
D+4
GBAO ↗ B Jun 29 - Jul 2 · n=550 LV D+4 D SPONSOR
GBAO ↗ 07-09 · n=400 LV D+4 PARTISAN
PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+1

Ryan Mackenzie (R)

50.5 — 49.5 · 2024 general election

def. Susan Wild (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
1.8 to 1
Bob Brooks$2.39M
Ryan Mackenzie$4.36M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.

BALLOT & DATES Primary 05-19 · HELDGeneral Nov 3, 2026 R settled · D settled · I settled COMPARE THE CANDIDATES ⇄