FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
A seat that went Republican by 1 point in 2024 is now priced for the Democrat.
Lean D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Likely DD 87¢: traders' price for a Democratic win, a flip from Republican.Polling · Toss-upD+4 (average of 2 pollsters, Sep 20).Prior result · Toss-upR+1 in 2024.MarketD 87¢PollsD+42024 resultR+1.0
MarketD 87¢PollsD+42024R+1.0
Market and polls both favor Brooks.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
GBAO ↗BJun 29 to Jul 2 · n=550 LVD+4House Majority PAC sponsorD+4 · House Majority PAC sponsor · counts as D+2 at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of the 2 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+1.0
Ryan Mackenzie (R)
50.5% to 49.5% · 2024 general election
def. Susan Wild (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; Mackenzie leads 1.8 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.