New Jersey 3rd District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Steven Welzer (G) and Ryan Michael Kelly (other).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market has run well past this seat's history — a 9-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 97.9¢ today.
Safe D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Safe DD 97.9¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Lean DD+8.6 in 2024.Fundraising · Lean DD 11.8-to-1 in receipts.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 97.9¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
—
No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+8.6
Herb Conaway (D)
53.2 — 44.6 · 2024 general election
def. Rajesh Mohan (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
D 11.8 to 1
Herbert C. Conaway, Jr.$934.7K
Michael P. McGuire$79.2K
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.