Illinois U.S. Senate
OPEN SEAT
Also on the ballot: Whitfield Harrington Jr. (I).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market has run well past this seat's history — a 16-point Democratic hold in 2020, priced at 97.8¢ today.
Safe D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Safe DD 97.8¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Likely DD+16.1 in 2020.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 97.8¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
—
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+16.1
Dick Durbin (D)
54.93 — 38.87 · 2020 general election
def. Mark Curran (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
2.4 to 1
Juliana Stratton$5.91M
Don Tracy$2.46M
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.