FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market has run well past this seat's history: a 16-point Democratic hold in 2020, priced at 98.5¢ today.
Safe D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Safe DD 98.5¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Likely DD+16.1 in 2020.Polling · Likely DD+13 (PPP, Oct 1).MarketD 98.5¢2020 resultD+16.1PollsD+13
MarketD 98.5¢PollsD+132020D+16.1
Market and polls both favor Stratton.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; Stratton leads 2.4 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.