Louisiana 3rd District — Elections Intelligence

THE NOVEMBER FIELD · 4 CANDIDATES

ON THE NOVEMBER BALLOT

JD John Day Democratic · Nominee

ON THE NOVEMBER BALLOT

TL Tia LeBrun Democratic · Nominee

ON THE NOVEMBER BALLOT

CW Caleb Walker Democratic · Nominee

ON THE NOVEMBER BALLOT

Clay Higgins Republican · Nominee

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 52-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 98¢ today.

Safe R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Safe RR 98¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+51.9 in 2024.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 98¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

—

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+51.9

Clay Higgins (R)

70.6 — 18.7 · 2024 general election

def. Priscilla Gonzalez (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

—

Clay Higgins$822.8K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-18 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.