DEFENDED SEATSafe RREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedOhio had to redraw its map before 2026. The bipartisan Ohio Redistricting Commission voted unanimously for a new plan on Oct. 31, 2025, and it stays in place until the next census. It becomes somewhat less Republican, going from Trump +29.3 to Trump +23.8 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
Robert E. Latta (R) has held this seat since December 2007, after a special election, and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in October 2025.
PresidentialR+29.3→R+23.8Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+29.3) and the new (R+23.8). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in October 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 94.8¢ Republican.
Safe R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Fundraising · Lean RR 125.31-to-1 in receipts.Market · Likely RR 94.8¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+35.02 in 2024.FundraisingR 125.31 to 1MarketR 94.8¢2024 resultR+35.0
MarketR 94.8¢2024R+35.0FundraisingR 125.31 to 1
No public polls. The market favors Latta.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
—
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+35.0
Robert E. Latta (R)
67.5% to 32.5% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesOhio had to redraw its map before 2026. The bipartisan Ohio Redistricting Commission voted unanimously for a new plan on Oct. 31, 2025, and it stays in place until the next census. It becomes somewhat less Republican, going from Trump +29.3 to Trump +23.8 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
def. Keith Mundy (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.