FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market prices this seat about where its history left it: a 9-point Democratic hold in 2022, priced at 79¢ today.
Lean D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Lean DD 79¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Lean DD+8.6 in 2022.Polling · Toss-upD+1.7 (average of 2 pollsters, Sep 21).MarketD 79¢2022 resultD+8.6PollsD+1.7
MarketD 79¢PollsD+1.72022D+8.6
Market and polls both favor Savit.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above