Elections Intelligence

Celeste Maloy

UT-3U.S. House H architectural icon
CHALLENGER Safe R to Likely R Likely to win
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Likely R

Maloy is the Republican nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Likely R. The market has Maloy at 99.6¢ against Udell's 1.8¢, up 4.6¢ since August 3. The polling average has Maloy ahead by 18.1 points, and Maloy leads 30.5 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Maloy · Republican contract
99.6¢
▲ 4.6¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Celeste Maloy by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 99.6¢ · low 93.9¢Oct 12
Celeste MaloyRepublican
99.6¢
Kent S. UdellDemocratic
1.8¢

9,841 traded · 4,638 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Maloy v Udell

Metric by metric
Maloy
Udell
99.6¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
1.8¢
$1.45M
RaisedFEC, through June 30
$47.5K
$322.4K
Cash on handFEC, through June 30
$13.3K
44.5%
Latest pollLighthoust Research · Sep 15
26.4%
U.S. Representativesince 2023
Holds now
No office on file

The 2026 race

Utah 3rd District
Latest poll
R+18.1

Lighthoust Research, September 15.

Prior result
R+32.8

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Mike Kennedy.

Fundraising
30.5 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.

THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWNR+20.3 → R+29.0

A Utah judge struck down the Legislature's map for violating Proposition 4, the anti-gerrymandering measure voters passed, and on Nov. 10, 2025, picked a map submitted by the plaintiffs for 2026. It becomes somewhat more Republican, going from Trump +20.3 to Trump +29 in the 2024 presidential vote.

The record this is read from ↗

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.