Shomari Figures
AL-2What the Signal reads
Figures is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Lean R. The market has Figures at 27¢ against Marques's 74¢, down 1¢ since August 3. The polling average has Marques ahead by 2.3 points, and the two campaigns have raised about the same.
The market
This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Shomari Figures by name.
190,067 traded · 160,004 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Figures v Marques
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Alabama 2nd DistrictAverage of 3 pollsters, June 25 to August 31.
2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Shomari Figures.
Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 22.
THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWND+8.2 → R+14.3
Alabama is going back to the map its legislature passed in 2023. A court-drawn map was used in 2024; on June 2, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court paused a lower-court order blocking the 2023 map, so the state's own map is in use this cycle. The district returns to the legislature's 2023 Wiregrass-and-Montgomery version instead of the court-drawn version used in 2024. The new lines flip the district, going from Harris +8.2 to Trump +14.3 in the 2024 presidential vote.