FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
A seat that went Republican by 3 points in 2024 is now priced for the Democrat.
Lean D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Lean DD 75¢: traders' price for a Democratic win, a flip from Republican.Polling · Toss-upD+1.3 (average of 3 pollsters, Jun 25).Prior result · Toss-upR+2.72 in 2024.MarketD 75¢PollsD+1.32024 resultR+2.7
MarketD 75¢PollsD+1.32024R+2.7
Market and polls both favor Cooke.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
D+1.3
FM3 Research ↗Jun 20 to 25 · n=535 LVD+4House Majority PAC sponsorD+4 · House Majority PAC sponsor · counts as D+2 at half weight
Impact Research ↗BMay 26 to 31 · n=500 LVD+4Cooke sponsorD+4 · Cooke sponsor · counts as D+2 at half weight
PPP ↗BOct 14 to 15 · n=609 RVD+2House Majority PAC sponsorD+2 · House Majority PAC sponsor · counts as EVEN at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of the 3 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Earlier polls · 1
Impact Research ↗BFeb 12 to 17 · n=500 LVD+1Cooke sponsorD+1 · Cooke sponsor · counts as R+1 at half weight
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+2.7
Derrick Van Orden (R)
51.3% to 48.6% · 2024 general election
def. Rebecca Cooke (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through July 22, 2026; Cooke leads 1.1 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.