Wisconsin 3rd District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

A seat that went Republican by 3 points in 2024 is now priced for the Democrat.

Lean D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Lean DD 77¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Toss-upD+4 — FM3 Research, Jul 6.Prior result · Toss-upR+2.72 in 2024.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 6¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 77¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+4

FM3 Research ↗ Jul 20 - 25 · n=535 LV D+4 D SPONSOR

Impact Research ↗ B May 26 - 3 · n=500 LV D+4 D SPONSOR

Impact Research ↗ B Feb 12 - 17 · n=500 LV D+1 D SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+2.72

Derrick Van Orden (R)

51.32 — 48.6 · 2024 general election

def. Rebecca Cooke (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

1.1 to 1

Rebecca Cooke$8.60M

Derrick Van Orden$7.53M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-22 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.