Elections Intelligence

Rob Sand

IAGovernor: G under a starred pediment
CHALLENGER Likely D Likely to win
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Likely D

Sand is the Democratic nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Likely D. The market has Sand at 88¢ against Lahn's 13¢, up 24¢ since July 31. The polling average has Sand ahead by 8.7 points, and Sand leads 1.4 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Sand · Democratic contract
88.0¢
▲ 24.0¢since July 31

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Rob Sand by name.

Jul 3148 daily readings · high 89¢ · low 64¢Oct 12
Rob SandDemocratic
88.0¢
Zach LahnRepublican
13.0¢

1,670,368 traded · 1,204,312 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Sand v Lahn

Metric by metric
Sand
Lahn
88.0¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
13.0¢
$9.39M
RaisedState filings, through July 14
$6.37M
$17.96M
Cash on handState filings, through July 14
$1.05M
49%
Latest pollEmerson College · Oct 6
45.3%
No office on file
Holds now
No office on file

The 2026 race

Iowa Governor
Polling average
D+8.7

Average of 7 pollsters, September 16 to October 6.

Prior result
R+18.5

2022 general election, won by Kim Reynolds.

Fundraising
1.4 to 1

Raised, through July 14.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.