Elections Intelligence

California 14th District

VACANT SEAT
SAFE D
Melissa Hernandez Democratic · Open-seat nominee
KALSHI PERSON MARKETCHECKED Aug 27
WAHAB 88¢16¢
View market on Kalshi ↗
Aisha Wahab Democratic · Open-seat nominee
FTP RACE SIGNAL

Nothing live is reporting on this seat. Its last general election was a 36-point Democratic hold in 2024.

Safe D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Prior result · Safe DD+35.6 in 2024.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-26
MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

No settling contract prices this race, so there is no market reading.

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+35.6

Eric Swalwell (D)

67.8 — 32.2 · 2024 general election

def. Vin Kruttiventi (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
1.1 to 1
Melissa Hernandez$635.0K
Aisha Wahab$575.3K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.

BALLOT & DATES Top-two primary 06-02 · HELDGeneral Nov 3, 2026 Top-two field settled · both advancers on the November ballot COMPARE THE CANDIDATES ⇄