Rhode Island Attorney General — Elections Intelligence

THE MATCHUP PRIMARY SEP 09 DECIDES THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE

PRIMARY · SEP 09 · DEMOCRATIC KXAGNOMRID-26 ↗

Decides which Democrat appears on the November ballot.

EVEN Kim Ahern 67¢ Keith Hoffmann 29¢

Kalshi primary market · checked 6:36 PM · 2 others priced below 15¢

NOV 3 · THE GENERAL ELECTION KXATTYGENRI-26 ↗

The settled side holds the Republican nomination. The party market prices the seat, not the people — it carries whichever Democrat wins on September 9, 2026.

DEMOCRAT 94¢12¢

KALSHI PARTY MARKET · CHECKED 08/27Democratic nomineeDetermined by the primary on September 9, 2026Republican nomineeDetermined by the primary on September 9, 2026

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 23-point Democratic hold in 2022, priced at 94¢ today.

Likely D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Likely DD 94¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Likely DD+23.11 in 2022.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 94¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+23.11

Neronha, Peter (D)

61.49 — 38.38 · 2022 general election

def. Calenda, Charles (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

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Democratic nominee determined Sep 9, 2026.

PULLED 08-19 · PERIOD 08-11 · STATE FILING

Cash on hand at the period end, not money raised.