Indiana 1st District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 8-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 94¢ today.

Likely D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Likely DD 94¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Lean DD+8.49 in 2024.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 94¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

—

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+8.49

Frank J. Mrvan (D)

53.44 — 44.95 · 2024 general election

def. Randy Niemeyer (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

1 to 1

Frank J. Mrvan$2.39M

Barb Regnitz$2.38M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.