Elections Intelligence

California 38th District

DEFENDED SEAT
SAFE D
Hilda Solis Democratic · Nominee
KALSHI PARTY MARKETCHECKED Aug 27
DEMOCRAT 99.8¢4.9¢
View market on Kalshi ↗
Pedro Antonio Casas Republican · Nominee
FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 20-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 99.8¢ today.

Safe D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Safe DD 99.8¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold. Prior result · Likely DD+19.6 in 2024.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 99.8¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+19.6

Linda T. Sánchez (D)

59.8 — 40.2 · 2024 general election

def. Eric J. Ching (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
Hilda Solis$1.05M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.

BALLOT & DATES Top-two primary 06-02 · HELDGeneral Nov 3, 2026 Top-two field settled · both advancers on the November ballot COMPARE THE CANDIDATES ⇄