Massachusetts 9th District — Elections Intelligence

THE MATCHUP PRIMARY SEP 01 DECIDES THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE

PRIMARY · SEP 01 · DEMOCRATIC KXMAPRIMARY-09D26 ↗

Decides which Democrat appears on the November ballot.

CS EVEN Bill Keating 99¢ Craig Swallow 4¢

Kalshi primary market · checked 6:36 PM

NOV 3 · THE GENERAL ELECTION KXHOUSERACE-MA09-26 ↗

R. Tyler MacAllister holds the Republican nomination. The party market prices the seat, not the people — it carries whichever Democrat wins on September 1, 2026.

DEMOCRAT 98¢

KALSHI PARTY MARKET · CHECKED 08/27Democratic nomineeDetermined by the primary on September 1, 2026R. Tyler MacAllisterRepublican · Nominee

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 13-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 98¢ today.

Safe D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Safe DD 98¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Likely DD+13 in 2024.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 98¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+13

Bill Keating (D)

56.4 — 43.4 · 2024 general election

def. Dan Sullivan (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

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R. Tyler MacAllister$163.5K

Democratic nominee determined Sep 1, 2026.

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.