Ilhan Omar · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Omar is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Omar at 95.6¢ against Nagel's 5.5¢, down 2.9¢ since August 3. Omar leads 7.8 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Omar · Democratic contract

95.6¢

▼ 2.9¢since August 3

Aug 342 daily readings · high 98.8¢ · low 93.1¢Oct 12

Ilhan OmarDemocratic · incumbent

95.6¢

John NagelRepublican

5.5¢

31,600 traded · 21,931 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Omar v Nagel

Metric by metric

Omar

Nagel

95.6¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

5.5¢

$5.83M

RaisedFEC, through July 22

$747.0K

$1.35M

Cash on handFEC, through July 22

$46.9K

U.S. Representativesince 2019

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Minnesota 5th District

Prior result

D+49.8

2024 general election, won by Ilhan Omar.

Fundraising

7.8 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 22.