Shannon Taylor
VA-1What the Signal reads
Toss-up
Taylor is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Toss-up. The market has Taylor at 54¢ against Wittman's 48¢, unchanged since August 3. The polling average has Taylor ahead by 0.5 points, and Wittman leads 1.8 to 1 in money raised.
The market
Taylor · Democratic contract
54.0¢
Unchangedsince August 3
This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Shannon Taylor by name.
206,856 traded · 128,729 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Taylor v Wittman
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Virginia 1st DistrictPolling average
D+0.5
Average of 3 pollsters, August 9 to September 28.
Prior result
R+12.8
2024 general election, won by Robert J. Wittman.
Fundraising
1.8 to 1
Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 15.