FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market prices a Democratic hold at 88¢.
Toss-up
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Likely DD 88¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Lean DD+5.24 in 2020.Polling · Toss-upD+2.9 (average of 7 pollsters, Oct 7).MarketD 88¢2020 resultD+5.2PollsD+2.9
MarketD 88¢PollsD+2.92020D+5.2
Market and polls both favor Flanagan.
The market moved 2¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through July 22, 2026; Flanagan leads 1.2 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.