Minnesota U.S. Senate
OPEN SEAT
Also on the ballot: Marisa Simonetti (I) and Rebecca Whiting (L).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market has run well past this seat's history — a 5-point Democratic hold in 2020, priced at 91.1¢ today.
Likely D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Likely DD 91.1¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Lean DD+5.24 in 2020.Polling · Lean DD+5 — Deep Root, Aug 20.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
The market moved 2¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 91.1¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
D+5
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+5.24
Smith, Tina (D)
48.74 — 43.5 · 2020 general election
def. Lewis, Jason (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
1.2 to 1
Peggy Flanagan$6.52M
Michele Tafoya$5.29M
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-22 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.